MercuryGate Logistics Landscape

Industry Trends Affecting Freight Transportation in 2025

Early economic indicators and industry trends analysis reveal promising signs for 2025. Freight transportation and supply chain management can expect a bumpy ride – that’s nothing new.

Yet growth opportunities exist, even as cost pressure increases – especially upward-trending freight rates. As always, keeping pace requires day-to-day operating efficiency and the ability to pivot quickly for the inevitable disruption.

But to build a competitive advantage and fulfill those optimistic supply chain predictions, you’ll need reliable real-time information, expert analysis, and data-driven execution.

Freight Forecast 2025: Market Realities & Strategies to Manage features Brent Hutto, Chief Relationship Officer for Truckstop, and Vicki Warker, our VP of Product Management. Watch their digital event to find out what’s coming and how you can adapt.

Keep reading the Q1 2025 Logistics Landscape Industry Report for more details about trends affecting your supply chain network.

Find out what is on our Q1 2025 reading list and be on the lookout for news coming soon about MercuryGate and Körber Supply Chain Solutions together!

2025 Disruptions in View

Expect supply chain disruptions. You can never predict everything that will affect the global transportation network, but you can prepare for what’s possible – especially the challenges already looming.

Port Stike Averted: Labor Negotiations Continue

A tentative labor agreement keeps International Longshoreman’s Association workers on the job at East Coast and Gulf Coast ports. If ratified, the deal avoids a work stoppage for more than 25,000 workers at 14 ports. Workers in roll-on roll-off vehicle handling are not part of the current agreement.

Winter Weather Snarls Domestic Transportation

Winter Storm Blair brought severe weather to much of the middle of North America. Record-low temps, hazardous travel, terminal closures, and flight cancellations affected transportation and logistics networks. FedEx, UPS, and the U.S. Postal Service all warned about service delays. There was negligible impact on Midwestern refineries.

Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty

As the U.S. International Trade deficit grew 6.2% in November to $78.2 billion, purchasing barometers reflect concerns about potential trade policy changes. U.S. imports were up 3.4% in November to $351.6 billion, the second-highest level on record. Many manufacturers are stockpiling imports ahead of potential new tariffs.

Business supply costs reached a two-year high in Q4, spurring inflation concerns. Tariffs promised on imports from China and Mexico are likely to add cost and pressure adoption of alternative sourcing strategies. Already, companies are moving in that direction.

At the same time, manufacturers expect growth despite potential tariffs.

November exports were $273.4 billion, up 2.7%. Imports were $351.6 billion, up 3.4%. Year-to-date the goods & services index reflects a deficit of goods of $5.4 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.9 billion.]

Transportation Managers’ Economic Indicators to Watch

Manufacturing contracted in December; however, many organizations expect growth in 2025 despite potential tariffs.

“Many firms are generally anticipating that business will pick up in the New Year, with respondents pinning hopes on expectations that the new administration will loosen regulations, reduce tax burdens, and boost demand for U.S.-made goods via tariffs,” Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in a statement.

Positive signs are already apparent, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing Report on Business. Seven manufacturing industry sectors experienced growth in December.

  • New orders increased 2.1%.
  • Production increased 3.5% after contracting the previous six months.
  • Employment fell 2.8%, contracting for the seventh consecutive month and 14th time in 15 months.
  • Prices rose 2.2%, increasing for the third consecutive month.
  • Inventories increased 0.3%.

Additional economic indicators to watch in 2025 from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Economic Activity Surveys.

  • Wholesale Inventories down 0.2% in November to $901.6 billion.
  • Construction Spending is virtually unchanged at $2.15 trillion.
  • Advanced Retail Inventories up 0.3% in November to $827.5 billion.
  • New Single Family Houses Sold up 5.9% to 664,000 units for November.

U.S. retail sales rose 3.8% (yoy) during the 2024 holiday season. The last five days of the holiday shopping period accounted for 10% of all holiday spending.

Online retail sales grew 6.7%. Apparel led e-commerce sales growth by almost 7% compared to last year. 

Of 1,300 global retail CEOs surveyed last summer, 82% are confident in their company’s growth prospects. Only 59% of those CEOs are optimistic about the overall worldwide economy. 

Rate Environment and Fuel Price Projections

Ocean Rates Increase

Container lines apply “disruption surcharges” of $1,100-$1,700 per FEU. The move comes as average container rates all spike ahead of the New Year in China. Trans-Pacific carriers increased rates by $1,000 per FEU on Dec. 15. Spot rates enter the year at historically elevated rate of $4,700 per FEU to the West Coast as of Jan. 13.

Lunar New Year, beginning Jan. 29, gives the market a three-week breather, and then volumes will return to a market influenced by heavy expected blank sailings. Carriers stand to maintain the momentum of 2024 into the 2025-2026 contracting cycles.

Line chart showing spot rates for containers shipping from China to U.S. West Coast and East Coast ports.

Spot rates from North Asia to U.S. East and West Coast ports dip ahead of Lunar New Year. North Asia to East Coast is down 7% from prior week to $6,000. North Asia to West Coast is down 10% from prior week.

Truckload Transportation

ACT Research forecasts a freight market upswing for the truckload sector in 2025.

ATA’s For-Hire Trucking Index in November decreased almost 1% year-over-year and declined 2% compared to October.

December Class 8 orders increased 23% year-over-year, outpacing expectations. Meanwhile, net U.S. trailer orders rose 42% month-over-month and 6% year-over-year. And a backlog of orders is expected to increase. Total trailer orders for the 2025 order season are down 42% year-over-year.

Preliminary North American Class 8 net orders in December totaled 31,900 units. Class 8 orders for full year 2024 totaled 279,872

Broker-posted spot rates in the Truckstop system during the week ending Jan. 3 (week 53 of 2024) eased slightly. Total load activity rose 47.3% during the period, with volume up more than 22% above Week 1 of 2024.

Spot rate trends for the week ending Jan. 3, 2025:

  • Dry van rates increased 2 cents to the highest level since January 2023.
  • Refrigerated spot rates rose 10.6 cents to their highest level since the last week of 2023.
  • Flatbed spot rates fell almost 3 cents for their largest decrease in 7 weeks.

Total broker post spot rates in the Truckstop network declined .07 cents and are 1.6% higher than the first week of 2024.]

Less-than-Truckload Marketplace

U.S. Less-than-truckload (LTL) carriers expect demand for industrial and retail goods to increase in 2025. At the same time, many LTL carriers are targeting smaller, infrequent shippers in the spot market. Without additional capacity, carriers have grounds for continued increases. Expect LTL price increases in the 4-6% range for 2025.

National Motor Freight Traffic Association (NMFTA) finalizes docket changes for freight classifications on Jan. 30, with a public feedback period to follow. Changes take effect July 19 and are expected to move toward more density-based classifications.

And with the nation’s first-ever congested pricing plan going into effect, New York City deliveries become among the most expensive in the U.S. Fees for heavy-duty trucks operating south of Midtown Manhattan start at $21.60 and will reach $36 in 2031. Passenger car fees can go up to $9 in peak times.

Parcel Rate Increases Take Effect

UPS and FedEx average rate increases are now in effect. OnTrac increased rates 5.7% on Jan.1. GLS US base shipping rates increased 5.9% on Dec. 23, 2024.

Parcel rate increases continue into the first few weeks of January.

Here are other rate changes to keep on your radar:

Fuel Costs

While diesel fuel prices have spiked recently, expect an overall downward trend to continue during the first half of the year, potentially 3-5% lower in 2025 than 2024.

In the past 4 weeks, diesel prices climbed 12.6 cents nationally, including a 4.1 cent increase to $3.602 on Jan. 13. In the prior week, the average climbed 5.8 cents, the largest upswing since mid-October 2024.

The U.S. average price for regular gasoline is down 0.4 cents to $3.043. The current average is 1.5 cents below the prior year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Line chart showing U.S. Average for on-highway diesel fuel from January 2024 through January 2025.

U.S. Average for On-Highway Diesel Fuel prices climbed 4.1 cents to $3.602 in the EIA report for Jan. 13. The average price is 26.1 cents below the same period last year. The average price for on-highway diesel has climbed 9.9 cents in the past two weeks.

Our Q1 2025 Reading List

Industry news and supply chain resources with additional support for your supply chain management strategy in 2025.

Bookmark our Logistics Landscape Industry Report and visit regularly for updated information and analysis as the year continues.

Be on the lookout for news coming soon about MercuryGate and Körber Supply Chain Solutions together!

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